Weather

[LedFTed 1,127]

the wind finally died down. been a few days of it. 38 last night, but without the wind, it wernt to bad. more rain expected. i need a lean to, for the hay, and the fire wood. snow or something, on the way. ohio valley, never know what ya get.

[LedFTed 1,127]

just an update, the winds are back, not as bad, yet.. soon as the ground starts ta dry out, it will rain again. i gotta update my mud boots.

Edited January 1, 2020 by LedFTed

[Bighanded 1,235]

On 12/26/2019 at 11:22 AM, _Wilson_™ said:

I agree^^^^

 

we got another warm day here 60 f  with cloud cover, ..... I think your right @bcsman January, and February maybe one for the books, not to mention march. I even have butter cups coming up... Lol , I've never seen that happen this time of the year, strange indeed, my thinking, it's just one of those odd years  for warm weather, personally i hope it last.

wow...that is early..but we've had so many good rain days, water levels are finally back to full from the long drought this summer and with days like today back in the 60s..yeah..wouldn't be surprised to see ours start to pop.

the wife and I were able to enjoy a nice ride out back on the trails on the golf cart yesterday and she really really likes my christmas present, so when I told her I was going out back to the range, she wanted to come.. I think she burnt more of my ammo than I did (grin)...

[_Wilson_™ 6,563]

@Bighanded Yeah it is!! , we had another round of flooding yesterday into last night , 2.5 to 5 inches and again milder then normal temp..... Thankfully .... We just had a few road closures , no water rescues, nor any fatalities ..... Looks like the south is in for a blast of of winter FINALLY... LOL anyways i went scouting a few ago, (new there would be roots washed/under cut along the banks) for downed tree, and I'll say .... I'll have plenty of wood for a while... , snagged some pics too, the 1st pic is the cave fed spring branch.... I'm sure it was much higher, a few hours ago, because i could hear the water rushing out from my back porch this morning @ 3 am  2nd pic... Is the actual cave entrance (i went for a swim getting that pic.... LOL!) Luckily i landed on my back, the camera was the ONLY thing that didn't get drenched ....3rd pic..... I was going to check on another downed.tree ... But when i saw one of the heard bulls go almost shoulder deep crossing .... NOPE... I didn't. Chance it., and the last pic..... Just plain muddy! 

[Fishfiles 20,145]

Wilson , that is a lot of water    ------   Still raining here , suppose to stop real soon , and be a nice weekend and thru next week --------  hope you'll get some good weather  

[_Wilson_™ 6,563]

I'd settle for any temp with NO MORE RAIN.... for a while....., i had a good laugh laying in the creek on my back...haha! Like HEY!! If this the worst thing that happens today.... I can live with it... Thing is i didn't think of getting a pic of that.... Would have been great! 

 

Kind of like stuck of the month HINT HINT fish..... That was your thread too 😉 but ill take it if you don t wont it.... Lol 

[Fishfiles 20,145]

5 hours ago, _Wilson_™ said:

 

Kind of like stuck of the month HINT HINT fish..... That was your thread too 😉 but ill take it if you don t wont it.... Lol 

You could re-inact the incident , snap some pics , and start a stuck thread !!! 

[_Wilson_™ 6,563]

I don't care for taking that ride again ...... Lol.... It was/is your thread bro... Run with it!....  We've been trying to get you to post pics of your rides for a while... I'll make this deal... You do the thread WITH pics/videos.... And I'll climb back in that cave .... And ... Take a dip AFTER the flood waters drop....

[Fishfiles 20,145]

Some videos would be nice , got the Go-Pro ,  still don't know how to post videos to you-tube ---  one day 

[Bighanded 1,235]

On 1/3/2020 at 12:52 PM, _Wilson_™ said:

I'd settle for any temp with NO MORE RAIN.... for a while....., i had a good laugh laying in the creek on my back...haha! Like HEY!! If this the worst thing that happens today.... I can live with it... Thing is i didn't think of getting a pic of that.... Would have been great! 

 

Kind of like stuck of the month HINT HINT fish..... That was your thread too 😉 but ill take it if you don t wont it.... Lol 

ouch...and yeah...long as you're not hurt bad..just a little soggy..then it's still a good day.  We have a large creek way back on the property..so with all this rain it does tend to climb out of it's banks and it can flood into about 7 acres...most of that receeds but we've had trail cams that were a good 3ft up trees that wound up underwater before..so it tends to clean out the woods, drops some limbs etc on my trails..was out yesterday and there's one that'll need a chain saw again...but wasn't wanting to take time with that yesterday...had gone out just to survey the flood damage and shoot the christmas present a bit more..anyway..we do have 2 particularly low lying areas that the water lays in..so muddy and axle deep..nothing the ol 300 can't handle...I just take it easy through those areas..not trying to be a mudder nor wanting to push a big wake of water...62 at lunch again today...and 71 coming this saturday...going to take my mom back to her home on the coast..she's been with us for the holidays..will grab my salt water fishing poles cause it'll be low 70s down there as well...nice break...March is coming..so I know the cold is still ahead.

[Nanook 91]

Been snowing up in the hills at -14F, -31F down in town!!! I’ve got to go in to work, will probably just leave the truck running at those temps.

[Bighanded 1,235]

ouch...yep...had just a couple trips north of the border for work in years past when it was that cold (Bracebridge CA)...and one night up there, all the plug-ins were taken...so we had to park the rental (I think it was a Ford SUV of some kind... I remember the car rental place made us go with something that was tall enough so we wouldn't get blinded in the whiteout from all the dry snow blow) on the drive from Toronto airport to our destination)..anyway came out the next morning..and the engine did turn over, but no way the transmission was budging..I told my work companion who was behind the wheel..just to shut it down cause there was no way that thing was going run...and we reminded ourselves to never purchase a used rental car fleet rig from up that way (grin)

 

ya'll do get the Weather channel up that way right?...you do know that there are places on this planet that are a tad warmer this time of year (LOL)

 

seriously.. I know..job, family..it's home...my relativs in Ohio won't budge off that mountain...I just send them pics of the warm temps on my car dashboard from time to time and they send me pics of snow in their backyard...

 

[Nanook 91]

It only last for three months or so.😎

[riverc 1,317]

1 hour ago, Nanook said:

It only last for three months or so.😎

 

LoL.....That's too long

[Fishfiles 20,145]

We are having an Indian Summer thing going on , it made it to 71F yesterday -----  the oak trees are starting to throw pollen, being sneezing up a storm and was wondering what was up , over the weekend I was wiping down the tables on the patio with a dark rag and seen  all the yellowish pollen all over every thing ---- glad winter is about over 

[Wheeler 2,525]

I can’t wait to drive up to work today. (Northern Alberta) it’s -38f right now. Ya gonna be a great week at work!! Everything gonna be freezing up.. great fun!

[retro 4,048]

I hope it isn't windy up there!

[shrade 197]

Was 51 degrees here today, way to warm for January, we are going to pay for this soon!

[riverc 1,317]

Sure has been a mild winter start.Looks like no major cold fronts for us next 10 days.It's calling for 34 tomorrow morning then 60's for the high.Forcasters say 78 for high Friday.

Wife is going hunt stand I killed the buck out of in the morning.Hope she gets her first kill,with her new Savage 6.5 Creedmoor.

[Fishfiles 20,145]

78 Friday !!! Nice , being right down the road from you .... I hear it is going to rain really bad Saturday , bumming on that one 

[riverc 1,317]

1 hour ago, Fishfiles said:

78 Friday !!! Nice , being right down the road from you .... I hear it is going to rain really bad Saturday , bumming on that one 

 

They talking around 1.5" for my area,only good thing it's supposed to be fast moving front.

[retro 4,048]

I have something I'd like to share with any of y'all that might be interested in long-term, big picture weather patterns and their causes. This is just a primer, just one good local source, but it proves food for thought for those who might be interested in studying larger global weather drivers to learn more. If you are interested in global drivers and regional pattern factors say something and I'll link ya to a few of the primary factors/conditions to watch and study.

 

I live offgrid in nature 24/7/365, as self-sufficiently as possible. I have become a novice global weather patterns fanatic these last several years due my needs to know, for planning and scheduling my outdoor work periods to provide survival ease and comfort. Basically, I live in an area where I need to be preparing for incoming at all times, else I suffer. Ain't no place to hide, no other safe place to run to, no one to blame but myself if I let my butt get caught out by something I didn't see coming. In case you're wondering... yep, I did some very stupid things in my 1st few years here during winter, took chances with my life during sub-zero blizzards and barely survived two of those mistakes.

 

This fellah is a little long-winded like I am when he types out a message. But unlike mine, his typed messages are always filled to the brim with valuable information. :-)  His name is Rolfson and he works in my area NWS office. Rolfson is one of the best long-term forecasters that I have ever read. I like his long-winded style too, because he provides information that is as complete as can be described, yet still fits on one page. This is Rolfson pasted from the night shift:

 

Quote

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 440 AM EST WED JAN 8 2020

As was indicated by the models last week, a strong positive height
anomaly has developed over the Pacific with the center of the max
anomaly s of the Aleutians. While this anomaly doesn`t have an
amplified extension n into the Arctic, it is and will continue to
force a trof in the mean over western N America for at least the
next 10 days and probably out into the latter part of Jan per recent
CFSv2 ensemble means. This pattern will support an active storm
track downstream across the Lower 48, providing episodes of hvy pcpn
for portions of the e half of the U.S. For Upper MI, this pattern
should be favorable for fairly frequent synoptic snows as a parade
of storm systems track across portions of the central and eastern
U.S. Main question is whether mean ridging forced over the eastern
Lower 48 will be amplified enough at times to drive ejecting
shortwaves on tracks far enough n and w to bring significant pcpn to
Upper MI. As it stands now, over the next 7 days, the swath of hvy
pcpn will align from the Lower Mississippi Valley across the Ohio
Valley/Lower Great Lakes and points e. Certainly though, the pattern
does offer the potential of an occasional significant snow event for
Upper MI. First shortwave will lift ne across the Upper Lakes on
Thu, providing a light mix of pcpn. Next shortwave ejecting from the
western states will lift thru the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region
this weekend. Whether or not this wave takes a track far enough to
the nw to impact the fcst area remains to be seen. Two or 3 more
shortwaves will likely affect the Great Lakes region during the
first half of next week. For now, only expect some light snow with
these waves as there are no current strong indications for any of
them to produce significant snow for Upper MI. As for temps, after
the drop back to blo normal today, temps will quickly rebound to
above normal on Thu under strong waa as low pres lifts across the
area. Above normal temps will continue into Fri. Temps will then
fluctuate around normal (within 5 to 10 degrees either side of
normal) thru the first half of next week with departures depending
on strength/track of shortwaves moving across the area. Farther down
the line, there are indications that negative height anomalies will
expand from western N America eastward across Canada, which would
tilt the odds toward toward blo normal temps later next week.

Beginning Thu/Thu night, shortwave and associated sfc low will lift
across the Plains to northern Ontario. Waa/isentropic ascent that
generates some -sn tonight will be followed by mid-level drying
early Thu. Isentropic ascent then continues Thu with moisture depth
increasing again under increasing moisture transport. However, it is
not clear whether the moisture depth will deepen sufficiently to
reach temps of -10C or lower to better ensure ice nuclei activation
for snow formation. Perusal of fcst soundings from various models at
various locations across the fcst area suggests there is a decent
possibility that the pcpn that redevelops on Thu will fall mostly as
liquid. There are some brief periods in some of the guidance where
moisture depth increases to support snow as well. So, temps then
become the critical aspect. Stayed away from bias corrected guidance
in favor of raw model guidance. Much of the raw temp guidance from
the models indicate temps rising to a degree either side of
freezing, except downwind of Lake MI where blustery se to s winds
aid temps rising toward the mid 30s. Even if temps do rise just
above freezing everywhere on Thu, the very cold conditions occurring
now thru tonight suggest road/sidewalk sfc temps will likely remain
subfreezing on Thu. So, at this point, fcst will reflect a mix of
-fzra/-fzdz/-sn developing with some areas seeing a change to
-dz/-ra later in the day where temps do rise above freezing. Even in
those areas, -ra/-dz will probably continue to freeze on
roads/sidewalks. Although pcpn will be light, a glaze of ice will
likely develop on untreated roads/sidewalks, leading to hazardous
travel conditions. This fcst will indicate the potential of a few
hundredths to one-tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. Will be
blustery on Thu as low-level jet translates across the area. Gusts
of 20-30mph will be common with some gusts potentially upwards of
40mph. Light mixed pcpn will diminish/end from w to e Thu night as
cold front moves across the area. Until the front passes, temps may
rise a degree or two during the evening.

Dry weather will follow for Fri as cooling behind the Thu system is
not sufficient for any LES development. High temps will still be
above normal, ranging from the 20s w to the low 30s east.

Over the weekend, sharp frontal boundary extending from the Lower
Mississippi Valley to the Lower Great Lakes will be the focus for
significant pcpn with the potential of significant wintry pcpn on
the cold side of the boundary. Shortwave lifting from the southern
Plains to the Lower Great Lakes will spin up low pres along the
front. 00Z deterministic model runs and CMC/GFS ensembles suggest
little potential for this low to take a track far enough to the nw
to bring significant snow into the fcst area. Even so, will be
something to monitor over the next few days. At this point, it only
appears that the se and e fcst area may get brushed by some -sn. N
to ne low-level winds and 850mb temps down around -14C should
support some light LES off Lake Superior Sat into early Sun before
winds veer further in response to the next shortwave moving across
the Plains.

This next shortwave should bring some -sn to the area Sun night into
early Mon. Another wave follows on Tue with more -sn and a third
follows on Wed. The Wed wave could be a little more important. The
00z ECWMF generates decent low pres tracking ne across the Straits,
and some of the CMC/GFS ensembles support a stronger system with
this wave. However, most of the ensembles are not supportive attm.
As stated above, the large scale pattern supports an active storm
track, so although the fcst reflects nothing of significance in the
offing for Upper MI, any of the waves tracking across the Lower 48
over the next 7 to 10 days could become an important pcpn producer
for Upper MI.
&&

 

As you have read we can expect an active weather pattern through the end of January. Folks in the plains, Mississippi & Ohio valleys gonna get dumped on frequently with up and down temp swings due to another strong amplifying ridge in the Pacific, centered just south of the Aleutians. If that ridge amplifies any further north to extend into the Arctic before it begins to break down near the end of the month, we will receive a cold blast of Arctic air sweeping down. Keep an eye on that Pacific Ridge... This is our second major (there was one small ridge that decayed in less than one week) amplifying Pacific ridge of the winter. We usually experience three of them per winter, so keep an eye on that area for ridging through the February & March (and into early April) months for at least one more US/Canada pattern driver. Be safe, stay warm and dry!

[LedFTed 1,127]

gimmy the short/easy version, for the Ohio valley. im still working on linux. :-)..

am i looking for snow an ice?  the sister an er husband, got a water-warmer for the horses. tis electric. Amazon says its OK, with an extension cord. the directions inside the box, dont say the same thing. i told them to send it back. ya just cant argue a point with stupid. it might take a long while for me to hook it up, should i do.

sorry to turn the thread a bit.. i just realized, some of the terminology, in the above post, i dont understand, least i will try to learn it.

i cant teach them, that horses, cattle, are more grounded, to the earth, more prone to electric, or lightning, death.

in a way, this still has to do with stormy weather. bad weather hits on many fronts..

[retro 4,048]

5 hours ago, LedFTed said:

gimmy the short/easy version, for the Ohio valley. im still working on linux. :-)..

am i looking for snow an ice?

 

Short version: Expect a parade of precipitation producers over these next two weeks with temps flip-flopping from both sides of average throughout. If the Pacific ridge amplifies into the Arctic as the month progresses you'll receive cold arctic air sweeping down across KY, which may provide snow/freezing rain events.

 

Unless you are located at high elevation you can expect moderate/heavy rain (possibly several inches depending on your location) in your area this weekend. By Thursday of next week its likely that at least two more smaller systems will have passed. Possible severe thunderstorms further south this weekend.

[jeepwm69 7,600]

River here is way up.  Tons of rain expected coming in overnight tonight and all weekend so going to get worse.

 

Here's my duck hole from the air.  The good news is, my buddy found my duck blind that floated off last year.  Had 6 telephone poles sunk in the ground, with a treated lumber deck on top, and when I went out to do the top of it it was GONE!  High water floated it up out of the ground and off.  I suspected it was still out there somewhere but couldn't find it with binoculars, but he spotted it from the air.

 

The maroon line is the usual water level.  Red line is our usual riding trail (you can see some other cut-throughs I've mowed).   My house is about 1/4 miles out of the top of the picture, so when riding from the house I come in from the top right.

Yellow is my missing blind.

Green is where I sunk it in the ground. 

Blue is my other blind, which is probably neck deep at current water levels (too deep to hunt)

Pink is where I want to try to put that wooden blind if I can float it over there while the water is up.

 

2nd pic is taken from the other direction.  Our trails cut through those woods going up to the top right corner of the picture.  Most of them follow old logging roads from the late 70's/early 80's that we re-cleared.